Vinnie Pasquantino

1B · LHB · LHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

PIT

Starter

Lake Bachar (RHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

18.9%

Model Hits%

64.3%

Model K%

53.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 19% · grade A

Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +26.8% lift over 127 games.

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+6.0%	—	LEAN
Hits	UNDER 0.5	36%	+1.1%	—	LEAN

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	36%	+1.1%	+189	+0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	-0.3%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	19%	+6.0%	+677	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+184	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	43%	—	+110	-2.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	53%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	35%	—	+144	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=467 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	95-414	.229	.377	.147	18	2	13	53	17.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	22-120	.183	.292	.108	5	1	2	11	20.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	73-294	.248	.412	.163	13	1	11	42	15.6%
Last 15 days recent form	9-40	.225	.500	.275	2	0	3	5	17.5%
vs PIT tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-20	.300	.700	.400	2	0	2	2	15.0%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	298-596	.500	1.250	.750	0	0	149	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.323

wOBA0.308

delta−0.015 due

n=462 PA

// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+26.8%significant

n=253 games · 23/127 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-16	5	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-09-15	3	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-13	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-12	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-08	5	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-09-07	5	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Vinnie Pasquantino across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.