Michael Massey

2B · LHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober (RHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

20.3%

Model Hits%

74.6%

Model K%

37.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+7.4% edgemodel 75% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	75%	+7.4%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	20%	+7.1%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Michael Massey, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-7	36%	-31.3%
A	4-8	33%	-47.2%
B	1-16	6%	-90.5%

Combined 9-31 · n=40 · ROI -61.2% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 44%

Matchup

Michael Massey (LHB) vs Bailey Ober RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bailey Ober RHP · season · 94.4 IP · 406 BF

BAA

.253

wOBA

.355

SLG

.443

ISO

.189

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

1.53

BB%

7.6%

16.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.3%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

41.7%

HR/FB%

16.3%

Michael Massey hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	74-291	.254	.405	.151	8	5.2%	17.5%
vs RHP	57-230	.248	.391	.143	6	5.3%	15.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Bailey Ober's arsenal × how Michael Massey hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bailey Ober throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	35%	89.8	16%	.377
Changeup	31%	83.1	26%	.329
Slider	17%	83.3	19%	.354
Sweeper	10%	77.9	36%	.353
Curveball	4%	74.6	20%	.630
Sinker	3%	89.8	5%	.521

Michael Massey vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	551	16%	.276	88.4
Changeup	220	18%	.263	85.5
Slider	168	18%	.303	87.5
Sweeper	85	31%	.156	84.1
Curveball	118	11%	.393	89.3
Sinker	152	15%	.338	90.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model75% OVER+7.4% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6

Plate Appearancesavg 3.6

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	12%	—	+375	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	75%	+7.4%	-204	+1.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	30%	+5.6%	+280	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-1.4%	+1100	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	20%	+7.1%	+663	+1.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	15%	—	+218	+1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	50%	—	+110	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	37%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	42%	—	+130	+1.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=307 PA · 2026-04-08 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	74-291	.254	.405	.151	20	8	16	17.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	17-61	.279	.459	.180	5	2	3	26.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	57-230	.248	.391	.143	15	6	13	15.2%
Last 15 days recent form	9-40	.225	.375	.150	3	1	1	20.0%
vs Bailey Ober tonight's starting pitcher	2-15	.133	.333	.200	0	1	0	13.3%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	21-73	.288	.479	.192	5	3	1	11.0%
@ Kauffman Stadium tonight's stadium	2228-8472	.263	.363	.100	847	0	707	15.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.303

wOBA0.320

delta+0.017 hot

n=305 PA

Spray chart

472 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play472

HR rate2.3%

Hard-hit (95+)39%

Avg exit velo88.3 mph

Ground ball35%

Line drive25%

Fly ball32%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	3	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-08-04	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-08-01	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-29	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-26	2	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-07-24	3	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Massey across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.