← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +16.3% edge model 72% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Splitter (17% usage, .527 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 72% +16.3% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 11% +4.2% 0% CAUTION
Matchup Pedro Pagés (RHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHP favors batter favors pitcher Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 60.7 IP · 261 BF
Pedro Pagés hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 30-148 .203 .324 .122 4 5.1% 25.0% vs RHP 21-95 .221 .379 .158 4 5.9% 21.1%
Pitch-type matchup Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Pedro Pagés hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Tyler Phillips throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 30% 95.6 9% .293 Sweeper 23% 84.5 43% .311 TOP Curveball21% 84.0 41% .386 TOP Splitter17% 87.4 34% .247 Four-Seam 8% 95.2 8% .420 Cutter 0% 90.4 0% —
Pedro Pagés vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 405 10% .317 85.6 Sweeper 216 42% .214 80.3 TOP Curveball122 38% .380 81.7 TOP Splitter38 26% .527 93.4 Four-Seam 601 15% .350 90.3 Cutter 154 15% .355 89.0
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases20% Home Runs0% Singles20% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.5
Our model 72% OVER +16.3% edge S
0 @CIN 05-23 1 @MIL 05-25 1 @MIL 05-27 0 vCHC 05-31 0 vCIN 06-06 3 @MIN 06-13 0 vSDP 06-17 0 @KCR 06-18 0 vARI 06-23 0 vARI 06-24
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 35% 7/20 2026 46% 26/56 2025 61% 68/112
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.7 Plate Appearances avg 2.7
3 3 3 3 2 4 1 5 2 1 Total Bases avg 0.8
0 1 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.7
0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -125 +400 +2000 +1287
Price legs
Splits Career n=156 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-24
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
30-148 .203 .324 .122 6 0 4 8 25.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
9-53 .170 .226 .057 3 0 0 2 32.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
21-95 .221 .379 .158 3 0 4 6 21.1% Last 15 days
recent form
3-12 .250 .417 .167 2 0 0 1 33.3% vs MIA
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-16 .188 .188 .000 0 0 0 2 37.5% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
110-672 .164 .164 .000 0 0 0 145 46.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.256
wOBA 0.265
delta +0.009 hot
n=155 PA
Spray chart 379 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Tyler Phillips's mix Balls in play 379
HR rate 4.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 40%
Avg exit velo 87.6 mph
Ground ball 44%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-24 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-06-23 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-1 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-18 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-13 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 3-for-4 · 2 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-06 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-05-31 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-05-27 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-05-25 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 K 2026-05-23 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Pedro Pagés across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
