Brooks Lee

3B · SHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

LAA

Starter

Ryan Johnson (RHP)

Stadium

Angel Stadium

Model HR%

15.7%

Model Hits%

67.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+1.4% edgemodel 16% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Cutter (39% usage, .346 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+1.4%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+0.3%	60%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brooks Lee, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-5	69%	+54.6%
A	4-3	57%	-8.3%
B	5-20	20%	-18.4%

Combined 20-28 · n=48 · ROI +7.4% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 55%

Matchup

Brooks Lee (SHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ryan Johnson RHP · season · 99.3 IP · 427 BF

BAA

.237

wOBA

.345

SLG

.416

ISO

.179

WHIP

1.38

HR/9

1.63

BB%

11.0%

18.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

5.0%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

44.4%

HR/FB%

14.5%

Brooks Lee hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	146-578	.253	.427	.175	24	6.8%	17.3%
vs RHP	102-390	.262	.469	.208	20	6.5%	13.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Brooks Lee hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ryan Johnson throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Cutter	39%	90.7	25%	.313
Sinker	22%	93.6	9%	.413
Sweeper	20%	80.8	32%	.363
Splitter	15%	84.6	38%	.257
Slider	3%	86.5	25%	.424
Four-Seam	1%	94.9	0%	1.423

Brooks Lee vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Cutter	228	13%	.346	91.2
Sinker	336	10%	.346	91.6
Sweeper	184	28%	.224	84.3
Splitter	132	31%	.130	84.5
Slider	392	31%	.230	86.0
Four-Seam	771	15%	.382	90.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model67% OVER+0.3% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.0

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	8%	—	+398	+0.1	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	67%	+0.3%	-204	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	75%	-1.1%	-320	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	16%	+1.4%	+600	+1.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+197	-3.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+600	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	47%	—	-103	-0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	35%	—	+145	-0.9	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=620 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	146-578	.253	.427	.175	23	3	24	42	17.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	44-188	.234	.340	.106	8	0	4	15	26.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	102-390	.262	.469	.208	15	3	20	27	13.1%
Last 15 days recent form	13-48	.271	.375	.104	2	0	1	4	20.8%
vs LAA tonight's opponent (full roster)	12-35	.343	.514	.171	6	0	0	2	5.7%
@ Angel Stadium tonight's stadium	72-162	.444	.444	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.267

wOBA0.311

delta+0.044 hot

n=620 PA

Spray chart

879 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play879

HR rate4.6%

Hard-hit (95+)36%

Avg exit velo88.1 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive22%

Fly ball30%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	1	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	2	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-17	5	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 2 RBI
2026-09-16	3	1	0	1	0	1-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-15	3	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-14	5	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-09-13	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-12	4	2	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brooks Lee across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.