← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +13.6% edge model 67% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sinker (41% usage, .393 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +13.6% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 21% +7.0% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Dalton Rushing, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 7-5 58% +1.3% A 2-6 25% -54.7% B 1-6 14% -68.6%
Combined 10-17 · n=27 · ROI -33.4% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 25%
Matchup Dalton Rushing (LHB) vs Javier Assad RHP favors batter favors pitcher Javier Assad RHP · season · 68.8 IP · 296 BF
Dalton Rushing hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 58-231 .251 .476 .225 13 12.5% 32.9% vs RHP 44-169 .260 .521 .260 12 12.4% 32.5%
Pitch-type matchup Javier Assad's arsenal × how Dalton Rushing hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Javier Assad throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker41% 92.6 10% .348 TOP Cutter20% 88.6 14% .381 TOP Four-Seam13% 92.6 17% .420 Sweeper 10% 80.7 31% .276 Curveball 7% 77.5 4% .404 Changeup 6% 86.0 31% .596 Slider 3% 84.6 13% .315
Dalton Rushing vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker140 10% .393 89.1 TOP Cutter99 28% .424 93.3 TOP Four-Seam267 27% .427 92.6 Sweeper 68 44% .439 88.5 Curveball 112 42% .499 92.2 Changeup 130 44% .346 85.2 Slider 127 39% .599 87.0
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases30% Home Runs20% Singles40% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts90% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 67% OVER +13.6% edge S
0 @NYY 07-19 0 @PHI 07-20 2 @PHI 07-22 0 @NYM 07-24 1 @NYM 07-25 1 @NYM 07-26 3 vSEA 07-28 1 vSEA 07-29 1 vSEA 07-30 0 vBOS 08-01
L5 80% 4/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 40% 8/20 2026 49% 45/91 2025 44% 23/52
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
5 4 4 4 4 1 4 3 4 3 Total Bases avg 1.7
0 0 6 0 1 1 4 1 4 0 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 1.5
2 4 1 1 1 0 1 1 3 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-116 Hits OVER 1.5+450 Home Runs OVER 0.5+638
Price legs
Splits Career n=264 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
58-231 .251 .476 .225 13 0 13 33 32.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
14-62 .226 .355 .129 5 0 1 9 33.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
44-169 .260 .521 .260 8 0 12 24 32.5% Last 15 days
recent form
9-31 .290 .548 .258 2 0 2 0 41.9% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-14 .214 .214 .000 0 0 0 1 42.9%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.324
wOBA 0.340
delta +0.016 hot
n=264 PA
Spray chart 239 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Javier Assad's mix Balls in play 239
HR rate 7.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 45%
Avg exit velo 89.3 mph
Ground ball 33%
Line drive 30%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-01 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-07-30 4 1 0 0 1 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 3 K 2026-07-29 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-28 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K 2026-07-26 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 2026-07-25 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-24 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-07-22 4 2 1 0 1 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-20 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 0-for-4 · 4 K 2026-07-19 5 0 0 0 0 3 2 0-for-2 · 1 R · 3 BB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Dalton Rushing across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.