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Hits UNDER 0.5 +10.6% edge model 47% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 0.5 47% +10.6% 50% LEAN Home Runs UNDER 0.5 89% +0.9% 90% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Dylan Beavers, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 5-9 36% -9.4% A 4-6 40% -29.8% B 5-6 45% +58.8%
Combined 14-21 · n=35 · ROI +6.2% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup Dylan Beavers (LHB) vs Robert Stock favors batter favors pitcher Robert Stock · season · 34.4 IP · 148 BF
Dylan Beavers hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 70-298 .235 .372 .138 7 9.7% 28.9% vs ?HP 56-240 .233 .392 .158 7 10.1% 29.6%
Pitch-type matchup Robert Stock's arsenal × how Dylan Beavers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Robert Stock throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Cutter44% 88.9 11% .270 TOP Sinker32% 93.7 20% .663 Four-Seam 10% 95.0 0% 1.919 Sweeper 8% 81.8 0% .662 Changeup 5% 79.4 50% .023
Dylan Beavers vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Cutter87 13% .427 82.4 TOP Sinker131 13% .360 92.3 Four-Seam 410 12% .427 89.4 Sweeper 74 38% .233 78.7 Changeup 146 28% .342 82.3
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles40% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks20% RBIs30% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 47% UNDER +10.6% edge S
1 vBOS 09-05 0 vBOS 09-06 1 vCLE 09-07 0 vCLE 09-08 2 vCLE 09-09 2 @TOR 09-11 0 @TOR 09-12 2 @TOR 09-13 0 @NYM 09-14 0 @NYM 09-15
L5 40% 2/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 53% 56/106 2025 53% 20/38
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.0 Plate Appearances avg 4.0
4 1 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 2 Total Bases avg 1.4
1 0 2 0 3 5 0 3 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.3
1 1 3 1 0 1 2 2 2 0
Tonight's lines 2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits UNDER 0.5+176 Hits UNDER 1.5-400 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-714
Price legs
Splits Career n=330 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-14
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
70-298 .235 .372 .138 20 0 7 32 28.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
14-58 .241 .293 .052 3 0 0 5 25.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
56-240 .233 .392 .158 17 0 7 27 29.6% Last 15 days
recent form
10-49 .204 .347 .143 4 0 1 2 30.6% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
0-6 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 50.0% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
0-860 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 40.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.297
wOBA 0.303
delta +0.006 hot
n=328 PA
Spray chart 290 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Robert Stock's mix Balls in play 290
HR rate 3.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 34%
Avg exit velo 87.5 mph
Ground ball 34%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 33%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-15 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-09-14 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-09-13 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-09-12 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-09-11 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-09 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 RBI · 1 R 2026-09-08 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-09-07 4 1 1 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 K 2026-09-06 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-09-05 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Dylan Beavers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.