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Hits OVER 0.5 +1.8% edge model 55% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Curveball (17% usage, .406 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 55% +1.8% 20% CAUTION Home Runs UNDER 0.5 90% +1.1% 100% LEAN
Matchup Graham Pauley (LHB) vs Kyle Leahy RHP favors batter favors pitcher Kyle Leahy RHP · season · 83.0 IP · 357 BF
Graham Pauley hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 15-98 .153 .255 .102 1 6.7% 25.5% vs RHP 14-87 .161 .276 .115 1 7.4% 27.6%
Pitch-type matchup Kyle Leahy's arsenal × how Graham Pauley hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Kyle Leahy throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 31% 94.7 17% .446 Slider 19% 90.4 16% .395 TOP Curveball17% 83.1 32% .373 Sweeper 13% 85.9 25% .394 Sinker 10% 94.3 6% .394 Changeup 10% 89.2 31% .413
Graham Pauley vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 362 17% .323 86.9 Slider 107 25% .266 85.9 TOP Curveball92 29% .406 94.0 Sweeper 49 17% .271 79.6 Sinker 137 14% .261 89.9 Changeup 152 36% .260 82.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits20% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles10% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks20% RBIs10% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs30% Stolen Bases0%
20% 2/10 · L10 · avg 0.2
Our model 55% OVER +1.8% edge PASS
0 @LAD 04-29 0 vPHI 05-02 0 vPHI 05-03 0 vPHI 05-04 0 vBAL 05-05 1 vNYM 05-23 0 vNYM 05-24 0 @TOR 05-26 0 @TOR 05-27 1 @STL 06-26
L5 40% 2/5 L10 20% 2/10 L20 40% 8/20 2026 42% 18/43 2025 47% 28/59
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.7 Plate Appearances avg 2.7
4 2 1 2 4 3 2 1 4 4 Total Bases avg 0.3
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.5
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 32% — +180 +1.2 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -115 +380 +2250 -833
Price legs
Splits Career n=105 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-26
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
15-98 .153 .255 .102 7 0 1 7 25.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
1-11 .091 .091 .000 0 0 0 0 9.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
14-87 .161 .276 .115 7 0 1 7 27.6% Last 15 days
recent form
1-4 .250 .500 .250 1 0 0 0 25.0% vs STL
tonight's opponent (full roster)
4-18 .222 .278 .056 1 0 0 0 27.8% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
18-72 .250 .500 .250 18 0 0 0 25.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.256
wOBA 0.276
delta +0.020 hot
n=104 PA
Spray chart 204 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Kyle Leahy's mix Balls in play 204
HR rate 2.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 35%
Avg exit velo 87.0 mph
Ground ball 39%
Line drive 21%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-26 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-05-27 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-05-26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-05-24 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-05-23 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 K 2026-05-05 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-05-04 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-05-03 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-05-02 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-04-29 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Graham Pauley across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
