← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.5% edge model 66% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (55% usage, .445 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 66% +10.5% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 14% +6.7% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Colt Keith, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-5 29% -48.3% A 0-3 0% -100.0% B 0-2 0% -100.0%
Combined 2-10 · n=12 · ROI -69.8% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 56%
Matchup Colt Keith (LHB) vs Gerrit Cole RHP favors batter favors pitcher Gerrit Cole RHP · season · 28.4 IP · 122 BF
Colt Keith hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 57-217 .263 .378 .115 4 7.7% 21.2% vs RHP 55-204 .270 .392 .123 4 7.7% 22.1%
Pitch-type matchup Gerrit Cole's arsenal × how Colt Keith hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Gerrit Cole throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam55% 96.2 17% .245 TOP Slider14% 88.8 22% .126 TOP Sinker12% 95.8 14% .003 Knuckle Curve 11% 81.8 0% .010 Changeup 8% 85.8 0% .443
Colt Keith vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam851 10% .445 94.9 TOP Slider303 31% .406 89.7 TOP Sinker302 11% .395 87.3 Knuckle Curve 27 30% .826 95.1 Changeup 415 35% .292 84.6
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases20% Home Runs20% Singles20% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs30% Stolen Bases20%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 66% OVER +10.5% edge S
0 vSEA 06-07 0 vMIN 06-09 0 vMIN 06-10 2 vMIN 06-11 0 @CLE 06-12 0 @CLE 06-13 3 @HOU 06-15 0 @HOU 06-17 0 vCHW 06-19 1 vCHW 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 35% 7/20 2026 55% 48/88 2025 54% 81/150
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.2 Plate Appearances avg 3.2
2 4 3 4 3 1 5 3 2 5 Total Bases avg 1.8
0 0 0 5 0 0 12 0 0 1 Home Runs avg 0.4
0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.3
0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 7% — +525 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 66% +10.5% -125 -0.6 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 25% +5.3% +400 -0.8 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% +0.8% +2500 -0.4 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 14% +6.7% +1246 +0.1 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 9% — +275 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 7% — +800 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 51% — +125 +1.0 — 1.5 — B 13% — +900 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 38% — +215 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -125 +400 +2500 +1246
Price legs
Splits Career n=235 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
57-217 .263 .378 .115 9 2 4 18 21.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
2-13 .154 .154 .000 0 0 0 1 7.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
55-204 .270 .392 .123 9 2 4 17 22.1% Last 15 days
recent form
5-24 .208 .708 .500 0 0 4 3 12.5% vs NYY
tonight's opponent (full roster)
8-38 .211 .211 .000 0 0 0 1 15.8% @ Comerica Park
tonight's stadium
201-1920 .105 .214 .109 0 105 0 225 32.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.313
wOBA 0.310
delta −0.003 due
n=235 PA
Spray chart 518 balls in play since 2025 · wind 7 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Gerrit Cole's mix Balls in play 518
HR rate 3.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 46%
Avg exit velo 90.2 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-06-19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-06-17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-15 5 3 0 0 3 0 1 3-for-5 · 3 HR · 6 RBI · 3 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-12 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-11 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB 2026-06-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-09 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-07 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Colt Keith across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
