← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +5.2% edge model 73% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Changeup (27% usage, .442 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 73% +5.2% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 20% +2.4% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jordan Walker, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-1 50% -29.0% A 1-2 33% -45.0% B 1-4 20% +28.2%
Combined 3-7 · n=10 · ROI -5.2% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup Jordan Walker (RHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHP favors batter favors pitcher Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 78.1 IP · 336 BF
Jordan Walker hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 87-305 .285 .521 .236 19 7.6% 27.2% vs RHP 65-232 .280 .500 .220 13 7.6% 28.4%
Pitch-type matchup Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Jordan Walker hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Merrill Kelly throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Changeup27% 88.3 31% .390 TOP Four-Seam24% 91.9 18% .432 TOP Cutter19% 90.7 15% .399 Sinker 12% 92.3 7% .415 Curveball 10% 81.7 18% .378 Slider 9% 86.0 33% .328 Pitchout 0% 90.3 — —
Jordan Walker vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Changeup237 48% .442 89.8 TOP Four-Seam607 23% .460 94.4 TOP Cutter167 35% .372 90.0 Sinker 486 18% .419 95.4 Curveball 123 52% .508 93.1 Slider 372 35% .382 92.3 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles40% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks20% RBIs40% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 73% OVER +5.2% edge A
1 @NYM 06-11 1 @MIN 06-12 1 @MIN 06-13 0 @MIN 06-14 2 vSDP 06-15 0 vSDP 06-16 0 vSDP 06-17 2 @KCR 06-18 2 @KCR 06-19 0 @KCR 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 67% 60/89 2025 56% 62/110
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.4 Plate Appearances avg 4.4
4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.3
1 2 4 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
1 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 12% — +400 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 73% +5.2% -213 -0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 30% +1.0% +220 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -3.8% +850 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 20% +2.4% +460 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 15% — +151 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +450 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 48% — +104 -0.5 — 1.5 — PASS 12% — +550 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 50% — +132 -0.2 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -213 +220 +850 +460
Price legs
Splits Career n=330 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
87-305 .285 .521 .236 15 0 19 25 27.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
22-73 .301 .589 .288 3 0 6 6 23.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
65-232 .280 .500 .220 12 0 13 19 28.4% Last 15 days
recent form
14-53 .264 .434 .170 3 0 2 1 18.9% vs Merrill Kelly
tonight's starting pitcher
1-7 .143 .286 .143 1 0 0 2 42.9% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
882-3400 .259 .361 .102 74 0 91 13 37.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.327
wOBA 0.331
delta +0.004 hot
n=329 PA
Spray chart 472 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Merrill Kelly's mix Balls in play 472
HR rate 5.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 52%
Avg exit velo 93.7 mph
Ground ball 45%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 24%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-19 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI 2026-06-18 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-15 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-13 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-12 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-11 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jordan Walker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
