Jordan Walker

RF · RHB · RHP · STL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

WSH

Starter

Jake Irvin (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

24.9%

Model Hits%

73.0%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+10.1% edgemodel 25% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Curveball (28% usage, .508 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	25%	+10.1%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	73%	+6.7%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jordan Walker, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-6	65%	+67.3%
A	6-8	43%	+48.4%
B	8-13	38%	+28.7%

Combined 25-27 · n=52 · ROI +46.6% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 41%

Matchup

Jordan Walker (RHB) vs Jake Irvin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jake Irvin RHP · season · 103.7 IP · 446 BF

BAA

.236

wOBA

.335

SLG

.408

ISO

.172

WHIP

1.43

HR/9

1.48

BB%

12.6%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.7%

HH%

44.6%

FB%

38.6%

HR/FB%

18.9%

Jordan Walker hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	164-597	.275	.474	.199	29	8.2%	28.0%
vs RHP	119-447	.266	.454	.188	20	6.9%	29.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Jake Irvin's arsenal × how Jordan Walker hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jake Irvin throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	31%	92.4	16%	.439
TOPCurveball	28%	77.7	28%	.397
TOPSinker	22%	91.9	9%	.380
Changeup	7%	85.4	16%	.372
Cutter	6%	87.7	17%	.445
Slider	3%	83.6	18%	.250
Sweeper	2%	81.2	24%	.472
Pitchout	0%	88.8	—	—

Jordan Walker vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	607	23%	.460	94.4
TOPCurveball	123	52%	.508	93.1
TOPSinker	486	18%	.419	95.4
Changeup	237	48%	.442	89.8
Cutter	167	35%	.372	90.0
Slider	372	35%	.382	92.3
Sweeper	341	39%	.300	91.6
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

30%3/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Our model73% OVER+6.7% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4

Plate Appearancesavg 3.4

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+425	-1.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	73%	+6.7%	-196	+0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	31%	+1.7%	+240	+1.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	25%	+10.1%	+579	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	18%	—	+170	+0.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	15%	—	+450	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	51%	—	+107	+0.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	42%	—	+150	+0.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=650 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	164-597	.275	.474	.199	32	29	53	28.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	45-150	.300	.533	.233	8	9	20	24.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	119-447	.266	.454	.188	24	20	33	29.1%
Last 15 days recent form	5-33	.152	.182	.030	1	0	5	36.4%
vs Jake Irvin tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.167	.000	0	0	0	33.3%
@ Busch Stadium tonight's stadium	5019-20680	.243	.369	.127	1040	526	1691	29.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.339

wOBA0.348

delta+0.009 hot

n=649 PA

Spray chart

680 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play680

HR rate5.1%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo92.4 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive24%

Fly ball23%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	6	0	0	0	4	0-for-6 · 4 K
2026-09-18	3	1	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-15	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-13	3	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-12	1	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 R
2026-09-09	1	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jordan Walker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.