← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.4% edge model 68% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (12% usage, .345 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% +6.4% 80% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 93% +1.7% 90% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Masyn Winn, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-0 100% +58.1% A 1-1 50% -16.0% B 1-2 33% -57.8%
Combined 3-3 · n=6 · ROI -24.5% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 75%
Matchup Masyn Winn (RHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHP favors batter favors pitcher Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 78.1 IP · 336 BF
Masyn Winn hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 62-267 .232 .311 .079 2 11.6% 22.8% vs RHP 43-198 .217 .288 .071 2 11.2% 24.2%
Pitch-type matchup Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Masyn Winn hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Merrill Kelly throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Changeup 27% 88.3 31% .390 Four-Seam 24% 91.9 18% .432 Cutter 19% 90.7 15% .399 Sinker 12% 92.3 7% .415 Curveball 10% 81.7 18% .378 Slider 9% 86.0 33% .328 Pitchout 0% 90.3 — —
Masyn Winn vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Changeup 275 17% .332 84.5 Four-Seam 1111 15% .326 89.5 Cutter 197 17% .288 87.3 Sinker 494 10% .345 89.8 Curveball 177 22% .258 84.8 Slider 503 19% .321 84.9 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles60% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks30% RBIs30% Runs Scored70% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.2
Our model 68% OVER +6.4% edge A
1 @NYM 06-11 1 @MIN 06-12 0 @MIN 06-13 0 @MIN 06-14 2 vSDP 06-15 1 vSDP 06-16 1 vSDP 06-17 3 @KCR 06-18 1 @KCR 06-19 2 @KCR 06-21
L5 100% 5/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 57% 48/84 2025 63% 83/132
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.1 Plate Appearances avg 4.1
4 5 5 1 4 4 4 5 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.8
2 1 0 0 2 1 1 4 2 5 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.5
1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +450 -0.9 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 68% +6.4% -161 +0.3 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 26% +1.4% +280 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -2.3% +1300 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER PASS 93% +1.7% -1111 -0.9 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 4% — +220 +0.3 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +700 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 56% — +103 +0.5 — 1.5 — PASS 14% — +475 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 49% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 37% — +158 +0.4 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -161 +280 +1300 -1111
Price legs
Splits Career n=302 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
62-267 .232 .311 .079 11 2 2 35 22.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
19-69 .275 .377 .101 7 0 0 10 18.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
43-198 .217 .288 .071 4 2 2 25 24.2% Last 15 days
recent form
11-41 .268 .341 .073 3 0 0 4 12.2% vs Merrill Kelly
tonight's starting pitcher
1-6 .167 .167 .000 0 0 0 0 33.3% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
821-2818 .291 .400 .109 0 0 102 426 24.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.283
wOBA 0.285
delta +0.002 hot
n=301 PA
Spray chart 609 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Merrill Kelly's mix Balls in play 609
HR rate 1.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 38%
Avg exit velo 87.5 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-19 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-18 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-15 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 R 2026-06-14 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-06-13 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-12 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 R 2026-06-11 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Masyn Winn across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
