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Junior Caminero
3B · RHB · RHP · TBR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 0.5+2.1% edgemodel 33% · grade PASS
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Junior Caminero, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 13-3 | 81% | +33.4% |
| A | 12-1 | 92% | +62.1% |
| B | 3-2 | 60% | +82.8% |
Combined 28-6 · n=34 · ROI +51.6% · avg CLV -2.1 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup
Junior Caminero (RHB) vs Patrick Sandoval favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=688 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.357
wOBA0.380
delta+0.023 hot
n=687 PA
Spray chart
976 balls in play since 2025Balls in play976
HR rate8.9%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo93.4 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive20%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-36.3%significant
n=297 games · 6/50 HR when active
-23.1%significant
n=317 games · 10/57 HR when active
+27.2%significant
n=329 games · 16/51 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +29% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.64× HR rate
50 yes / 247 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
+29%
128 yes / 198 no · 77 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+29%
159 yes / 176 no · 80 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+27%
51 yes / 278 no · 78 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−23%
57 yes / 260 no · 78 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+21%
144 yes / 190 no · 80 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+21%
35 yes / 296 no · 79 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+22%
2 yes / 333 no · 80 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−19%
195 yes / 129 no · 76 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+18%
269 yes / 66 no · 80 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+17%
254 yes / 75 no · 78 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+17%
56 yes / 278 no · 80 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+15%
50 yes / 281 no · 78 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−14%
42 yes / 289 no · 79 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−14%
74 yes / 186 no · 57 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−14%
162 yes / 163 no · 79 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−10%
267 yes / 67 no · 80 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+9%
148 yes / 182 no · 80 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+5%
55 yes / 278 no · 80 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
31 yes / 304 no · 80 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
201 yes / 134 no · 80 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
171 yes / 164 no · 80 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
1 yes / 324 no · 79 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
95 yes / 240 no · 80 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
12 yes / 322 no · 80 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 335 no · 80 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 329 no · 78 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Junior Caminero across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.