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Junior Caminero
3B · RHB · RHP · TBR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Junior Caminero, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-2 | 80% | +41.5% |
| A | 5-3 | 63% | +25.3% |
| B | 5-1 | 83% | +49.0% |
Combined 18-6 · n=24 · ROI +38.0% · avg CLV -3.5 pts · beat close 44%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.5
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=513 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.375
wOBA0.394
delta+0.019 hot
n=512 PA
Spray chart
853 balls in play since 2025Balls in play853
HR rate9.1%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo93.7 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive20%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-34.4%significant
n=266 games · 5/42 HR when active
-24.1%significant
n=297 games · 3/24 HR when active
-23.7%significant
n=279 games · 9/52 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.66× HR rate
42 yes / 224 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
133 yes / 164 no · 71 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+28%
221 yes / 71 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+26%
114 yes / 175 no · 69 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+26%
26 yes / 267 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−25%
35 yes / 258 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−24%
24 yes / 273 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−24%
52 yes / 227 no · 69 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−18%
132 yes / 155 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−18%
174 yes / 115 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+18%
48 yes / 248 no · 71 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−15%
66 yes / 166 no · 50 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+14%
234 yes / 63 no · 71 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+14%
173 yes / 124 no · 71 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+11%
1 yes / 296 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+11%
40 yes / 252 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−11%
233 yes / 63 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−9%
56 yes / 239 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+9%
126 yes / 170 no · 71 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+8%
133 yes / 159 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
40 yes / 254 no · 70 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
1 yes / 286 no · 70 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
12 yes / 284 no · 71 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
83 yes / 214 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
155 yes / 142 no · 71 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 292 no · 70 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 297 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Junior Caminero across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.