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Hits UNDER 1.5 +6.9% edge model 76% · grade A
Why: struggles vs the Forkball (27% usage, .194 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 76% +6.9% 40% LEAN Home Runs UNDER 0.5 81% +1.2% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Pete Crow-Armstrong, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 3-0 100% +43.4% A — — — B — — —
Combined 3-0 · n=3 · ROI +43.4% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Pete Crow-Armstrong (LHB) vs Kodai Senga favors batter favors pitcher Kodai Senga · season · 30.2 IP · 130 BF
Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 83-300 .277 .503 .227 16 11.0% 28.0% vs ?HP 56-202 .277 .540 .262 12 10.2% 26.2%
Pitch-type matchup Kodai Senga's arsenal × how Pete Crow-Armstrong hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Kodai Senga throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam32% 94.9 18% .426 Forkball 27% 82.6 40% .280 TOP Cutter21% 89.6 17% .336 Sweeper 9% 80.1 21% .423 Sinker 6% 88.5 11% .311 Slider 4% 83.8 35% .300 Curveball 2% 68.4 60% .016 Pitchout 0% 79.3 — — Eephus 0% 50.7 — —
Pete Crow-Armstrong vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam1060 26% .442 91.2 Forkball 8 0% .194 96.0 TOP Cutter219 31% .414 87.1 Sweeper 277 27% .344 81.8 Sinker 376 19% .386 83.8 Slider 476 34% .353 88.0 Curveball 258 28% .481 89.3 Pitchout no sample Eephus 5 0% .398 90.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits100% Total Bases100% Home Runs50% Singles60% Doubles40% Triples20% Strikeouts60% Walks30% RBIs60% Runs Scored80% Hits + Runs + RBIs100% Stolen Bases30%
100% 10/10 · L10 · avg 2.0
Our model 33% UNDER -1.1% edge PASS
1 06-10 2 06-11 1 @SFG 06-12 3 @SFG 06-13 2 @SFG 06-14 4 06-15 1 06-16 1 06-17 3 vTOR 06-19 2 vTOR 06-20
L5 100% 5/5 L10 100% 10/10 L20 95% 19/20 2026 66% 57/87 2025 61% 102/168
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.7 Plate Appearances avg 4.7
4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 Total Bases avg 4.3
3 3 2 7 2 10 4 4 3 5 Home Runs avg 0.5
0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.9
0 0 1 2 1 0 2 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +375 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 UNDER PASS 33% -1.1% +195 +2.9 Sign in BEST 1.5UNDER A 76% +6.9% -227 -5.6 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -7.7% +750 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER PASS 81% +1.2% -385 -0.6 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 13% — +160 +1.4 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +500 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 44% — +103 +0.7 — 1.5 — A 8% — +550 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 42% — +112 +1.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't +195 -227 +750 -385
Price legs
Splits Career n=337 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
83-300 .277 .503 .227 12 4 16 37 28.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
27-98 .276 .429 .153 1 1 4 14 31.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
56-202 .277 .540 .262 11 3 12 23 26.2% Last 15 days
recent form
21-52 .404 .846 .442 4 2 5 5 26.9% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
10-44 .227 .364 .136 1 1 1 4 22.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.323
wOBA 0.319
delta −0.004 due
n=337 PA
Spray chart 692 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Kodai Senga's mix Balls in play 692
HR rate 6.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 46%
Avg exit velo 89.2 mph
Ground ball 34%
Line drive 21%
Fly ball 35%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-20 5 2 0 0 1 1 2 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-19 5 3 0 0 0 2 0 3-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 SB · 2 BB 2026-06-17 5 1 0 0 1 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-16 5 1 0 0 1 0 2 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-15 5 4 1 1 1 0 0 4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-14 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-13 5 3 1 0 1 0 2 3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 K 2026-06-12 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-06-11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 SB 2026-06-10 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 3B · 1 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Pete Crow-Armstrong across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
