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Stadium
American Family Field
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +5.5% edge model 70% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (38% usage, .385 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 70% +5.5% 80% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 16% +2.5% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jackson Chourio, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-5 29% -52.1% A 5-1 83% +107.1% B 7-7 50% -13.6%
Combined 14-13 · n=27 · ROI +3.2% · avg CLV +0.5 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup Jackson Chourio (RHB) vs Paul Skenes RHP favors batter favors pitcher Paul Skenes RHP · season · 123.5 IP · 531 BF
Jackson Chourio hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 93-339 .274 .460 .186 14 7.9% 26.5% vs RHP 67-253 .265 .447 .182 10 7.0% 26.5%
Pitch-type matchup Paul Skenes's arsenal × how Jackson Chourio hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Paul Skenes throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam38% 97.9 26% .382 Sweeper 16% 84.3 30% .269 TOP Splitter14% 93.7 20% .321 TOP Changeup12% 88.8 38% .260 Sinker 12% 97.3 12% .307 Slider 4% 85.3 34% .194 Curveball 4% 83.6 38% .437
Jackson Chourio vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam846 23% .385 93.0 Sweeper 230 28% .336 85.0 TOP Splitter79 15% .386 90.7 TOP Changeup171 31% .425 86.6 Sinker 462 10% .384 91.7 Slider 415 33% .350 86.5 Curveball 131 25% .440 91.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles60% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks20% RBIs30% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 70% OVER +5.5% edge A
1 07-25 2 07-26 1 @SFG 07-27 2 @SFG 07-28 0 @SFG 07-29 1 @LAA 07-31 1 @LAA 08-01 2 @LAA 08-02 0 vPIT 08-03 3 vPIT 08-04
L5 80% 4/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 71% 65/91 2025 71% 104/146
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.6 Plate Appearances avg 4.6
5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 Total Bases avg 1.9
1 4 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 6 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.9
1 0 1 0 0 3 1 1 2 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 37% — +160 +2.2 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -179 +260 +1000 +639
Price legs
Splits Career n=368 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-03
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
93-339 .274 .460 .186 21 0 14 29 26.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
26-86 .302 .500 .198 5 0 4 10 26.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
67-253 .265 .447 .182 16 0 10 19 26.5% Last 15 days
recent form
13-51 .255 .314 .059 3 0 0 3 23.5% vs Paul Skenes
tonight's starting pitcher
2-7 .286 .429 .143 1 0 0 1 42.9% vs PIT
tonight's opponent (full roster)
12-56 .214 .321 .107 3 0 1 4 28.6% @ American Family Field
tonight's stadium
5031-16898 .298 .578 .280 849 0 1293 2574 26.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.317
wOBA 0.333
delta +0.016 hot
n=368 PA
Spray chart 723 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Paul Skenes's mix Balls in play 723
HR rate 5.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 48%
Avg exit velo 91.5 mph
Ground ball 44%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-04 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-08-03 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 0-for-3 · 1 R · 2 BB · 2 K 2026-08-02 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-08-01 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-31 5 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-5 · 1 R · 3 K 2026-07-29 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-5 2026-07-28 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 2 RBI 2026-07-27 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-07-26 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R 2026-07-25 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jackson Chourio across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
