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Hits OVER 0.5 +14.0% edge model 74% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .448 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 74% +14.0% 40% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Tommy Troy, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-0 100% +72.1% A 1-1 50% +130.0% B 0-1 0% -100.0%
Combined 3-2 · n=5 · ROI +60.8% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Tommy Troy (RHB) vs Andre Pallante RHP favors batter favors pitcher Andre Pallante RHP · season · 74.9 IP · 322 BF
Tommy Troy hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 17-68 .250 .397 .147 2 11.7% 20.6% vs RHP 9-53 .170 .245 .075 1 13.1% 22.6%
Pitch-type matchup Andre Pallante's arsenal × how Tommy Troy hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Andre Pallante throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam41% 94.5 13% .373 TOP Slider28% 87.4 33% .320 Knuckle Curve 15% 78.0 36% .359 Sinker 15% 95.0 12% .273 Splitter 1% 87.3 33% .150 Changeup 0% 90.5 0% .222 Sweeper 0% 83.0 0% —
Tommy Troy vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam14 0% .448 90.0 TOP Slider11 0% .373 100.5 Knuckle Curve no sample Sinker 11 20% .272 91.3 Splitter no sample Changeup 9 50% .888 69.3 Sweeper 3 33% .421 99.0
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples10% Strikeouts70% Walks30% RBIs20% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 74% OVER +14.0% edge S
0 vWSN 06-07 1 @MIA 06-09 0 @MIA 06-10 0 @MIA 06-11 0 @CIN 06-13 1 @CIN 06-14 0 vLAA 06-15 2 vLAA 06-17 2 vMIN 06-20 0 vMIN 06-21
L5 60% 3/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 57% 20/35 2025 50% 2/4
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
3 5 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.1
0 1 0 0 0 4 0 4 2 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.9
0 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 11% — +525 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 74% +14.0% -149 +0.7 Sign in 1.5 OVER S 31% +10.9% +360 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% +0.6% +1500 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 UNDER PASS 93% — -3500 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 6% — +280 -0.4 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +900 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 58% — -101 +1.2 — 1.5 — A 18% — +600 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 44% — +220 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -149 +360 +1500 -3500
Price legs
Splits Career n=77 PA · 2026-05-24 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
17-68 .250 .397 .147 2 1 2 9 20.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
8-15 .533 .933 .400 1 1 1 1 13.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
9-53 .170 .245 .075 1 0 1 8 22.6% Last 15 days
recent form
6-30 .200 .367 .167 0 1 1 4 23.3%
Spray chart 59 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Andre Pallante's mix Balls in play 59
HR rate 3.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 26%
Avg exit velo 82.1 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 19%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-20 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-17 4 2 0 1 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-14 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-11 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-10 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-09 5 1 0 0 0 2 1 1-for-3 · 2 R · 2 BB · 1 K 2026-06-07 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Tommy Troy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
