← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +8.5% edge model 70% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (33% usage, .515 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 70% +8.5% 70% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 85% +2.5% 70% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jac Caglianone, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-2 50% -17.2% A 1-2 33% -43.7% B 4-3 57% +103.8%
Combined 7-7 · n=14 · ROI +37.6% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 45%
Matchup Jac Caglianone (LHB) vs Drew Rasmussen RHP favors batter favors pitcher Drew Rasmussen RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF
Jac Caglianone hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 66-249 .265 .442 .177 10 9.8% 33.3% vs RHP 47-173 .272 .457 .185 7 11.7% 34.1%
Pitch-type matchup Drew Rasmussen's arsenal × how Jac Caglianone hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Drew Rasmussen throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam33% 95.8 19% .373 TOP Cutter32% 90.3 24% .310 Sinker 22% 95.4 11% .325 Curveball 4% 80.6 18% .390 Sweeper 4% 84.7 20% .475 Changeup 4% 89.7 48% .324 Slider 0% 84.6 0% .383
Jac Caglianone vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam405 20% .515 95.5 TOP Cutter127 13% .475 96.8 Sinker 218 17% .284 86.1 Curveball 159 36% .160 86.6 Sweeper 141 29% .494 93.8 Changeup 165 27% .323 87.9 Slider 225 39% .434 92.2
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases50% Home Runs30% Singles50% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts90% Walks20% RBIs40% Runs Scored70% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 70% OVER +8.5% edge S
2 vTEX 06-11 0 vHOU 06-12 0 vHOU 06-13 1 vHOU 06-14 2 @WSN 06-15 0 @WSN 06-16 1 @WSN 06-17 1 vSTL 06-18 2 vSTL 06-19 2 vSTL 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 63% 53/84 2025 42% 27/65
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.5 Plate Appearances avg 4.5
4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 Total Bases avg 2.4
2 0 0 1 3 0 1 4 5 8 Home Runs avg 0.4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 Strikeouts avg 1.4
1 3 0 3 1 2 1 1 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 9% — +475 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 70% +8.5% -159 +0.5 Sign in 1.5 OVER B 26% +4.4% +360 -1.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -2.2% +1300 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER PASS 85% +2.5% -476 -7.5 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 10% — +213 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 7% — +700 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 51% — +130 -1.0 — 1.5 — PASS 12% — +900 -1.1 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 42% — +161 -0.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -159 +360 +1300 -476
Price legs
Splits Career n=276 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
66-249 .265 .442 .177 12 1 10 27 33.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
19-76 .250 .408 .158 3 0 3 4 31.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
47-173 .272 .457 .185 9 1 7 23 34.1% Last 15 days
recent form
16-45 .356 .667 .311 2 0 4 4 31.1%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.330
wOBA 0.295
delta −0.035 due
n=276 PA
Spray chart 327 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Drew Rasmussen's mix Balls in play 327
HR rate 5.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 54%
Avg exit velo 92.2 mph
Ground ball 45%
Line drive 28%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 2 0 0 2 2 1 2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3 RBI · 3 R · 2 BB · 1 K 2026-06-19 4 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 K 2026-06-18 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-17 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 K 2026-06-16 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-06-15 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 3 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-2 · 1 R · 2 BB 2026-06-12 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-5 · 3 K 2026-06-11 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jac Caglianone across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
