Carter Jensen

C · LHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

PIT

Starter

Lake Bachar (RHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

20.2%

Model Hits%

61.6%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+2.0% edgemodel 20% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (36% usage, .495 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	20%	+2.0%	30%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 1.5	80%	+0.3%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Carter Jensen, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-5	75%	+96.4%
A	10-10	50%	+77.7%
B	8-14	36%	+21.8%

Combined 33-29 · n=62 · ROI +63.9% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 44%

Matchup

Carter Jensen (LHB) vs Lake Bachar RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Lake Bachar RHP · season · 79.1 IP · 340 BF

BAA

.190

wOBA

.308

SLG

.347

ISO

.157

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.48

BB%

11.8%

25.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.8%

HH%

32.9%

FB%

41.9%

HR/FB%

18.6%

Carter Jensen hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	118-525	.225	.432	.208	24	11.8%	31.6%
vs RHP	85-370	.230	.470	.241	20	12.9%	30.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Lake Bachar's arsenal × how Carter Jensen hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Lake Bachar throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	36%	94.8	21%	.423
Sweeper	25%	86.4	28%	.405
TOPSlider	24%	89.5	41%	.326
TOPSplitter	13%	83.7	33%	.265
Curveball	2%	85.5	33%	.417

Carter Jensen vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	361	33%	.495	94.8
Sweeper	88	26%	.132	88.7
TOPSlider	139	32%	.441	88.7
TOPSplitter	60	35%	.386	91.7
Curveball	80	29%	.414	90.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model38% UNDER-0.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.4

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 1.4

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	8%	—	+375	-1.2	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	38%	-0.8%	+155	+4.9	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	80%	+0.3%	-400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	20%	+2.0%	+451	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	13%	—	+188	+0.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	37%	—	+120	+2.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	33%	—	+122	+1.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=595 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	118-525	.225	.432	.208	33	2	24	70	31.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	33-155	.213	.342	.129	8	0	4	15	34.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	85-370	.230	.470	.241	25	2	20	55	30.3%
Last 15 days recent form	10-39	.256	.538	.282	5	0	2	7	30.8%
vs PIT tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-6	.167	.167	.000	0	0	0	0	50.0%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	0-596	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	75.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.310

wOBA0.325

delta+0.015 hot

n=594 PA

Spray chart

397 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing out

Balls in play397

HR rate6.8%

Hard-hit (95+)45%

Avg exit velo91.7 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive21%

Fly ball35%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 3 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-17	4	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-16	5	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-09-15	4	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-09-13	2	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-11	5	2	2	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-09-08	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Carter Jensen across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.