Colson Montgomery

SS · LHB · RHP · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BOS

Starter

Ranger Suarez (LHP)

Stadium

Fenway Park

Model HR%

17.5%

Model Hits%

68.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+10.1% edgemodel 68% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Cutter (18% usage, .711 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	68%	+10.1%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	18%	+2.8%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Colson Montgomery, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-6	65%	+45.2%
A	6-7	46%	+11.3%
B	2-10	17%	-71.9%

Combined 19-23 · n=42 · ROI +1.3% · avg CLV -2.0 pts · beat close 45%

Matchup

Colson Montgomery (LHB) vs Ranger Suarez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ranger Suarez LHP · season · 100.5 IP · 432 BF

BAA

.242

wOBA

.289

SLG

.349

ISO

.107

WHIP

1.27

HR/9

0.63

BB%

7.2%

25.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

33.1%

FB%

28.0%

HR/FB%

10.4%

Colson Montgomery hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	88-422	.209	.429	.220	25	10.2%	36.5%
vs LHP	34-129	.264	.519	.256	8	9.8%	31.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Ranger Suarez's arsenal × how Colson Montgomery hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ranger Suarez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	29%	90.2	9%	.344
TOPChangeup	19%	79.9	30%	.317
TOPCutter	18%	86.8	16%	.355
TOPCurveball	16%	74.3	27%	.242
Four-Seam	15%	91.5	14%	.408
Slider	4%	79.6	60%	.370

Colson Montgomery vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	272	26%	.431	92.0
TOPChangeup	234	38%	.442	89.1
TOPCutter	147	24%	.711	92.7
TOPCurveball	125	36%	.353	88.0
Four-Seam	686	28%	.342	88.1
Slider	252	37%	.541	91.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

30%3/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model68% OVER+10.1% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.8

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+450	-0.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	68%	+10.1%	-139	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	28%	+7.1%	+380	-1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-0.2%	+1500	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	18%	+2.8%	+580	+2.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+241	+0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+600	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	48%	—	+140	+0.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	14%	—	+900	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+160	-0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=470 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	88-422	.209	.429	.220	18	25	48	36.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	34-129	.264	.519	.256	9	8	14	31.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	54-293	.184	.389	.205	9	17	34	38.9%
Last 15 days recent form	7-44	.159	.250	.091	1	1	4	34.1%
vs BOS tonight's opponent (full roster)	3-17	.176	.176	.000	0	0	1	17.6%
@ Fenway Park tonight's stadium	170-510	.333	.333	.000	0	0	170	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.307

wOBA0.322

delta+0.015 hot

n=470 PA

Spray chart

439 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play439

HR rate10.3%

Hard-hit (95+)43%

Avg exit velo88.8 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive21%

Fly ball33%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-08-04	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-08-02	5	1	1	0	0	4	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 4 K
2026-08-01	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-31	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-30	5	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-5 · 2 K
2026-07-29	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-27	5	3	0	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-25	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Colson Montgomery across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.