← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.3% edge model 66% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (35% usage, .342 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 66% +10.3% 40% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 27% +5.5% 30% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Colson Montgomery, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-4 33% -45.0% A 5-8 38% -16.7% B 2-3 40% +123.2%
Combined 9-15 · n=24 · ROI +5.3% · avg CLV -2.7 pts · beat close 47%
Matchup Colson Montgomery (LHB) vs Gavin Williams RHP favors batter favors pitcher Gavin Williams RHP · season · 95.6 IP · 411 BF
Colson Montgomery hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 61-285 .214 .470 .256 20 12.0% 35.8% vs RHP 42-200 .210 .445 .235 13 12.7% 37.0%
Pitch-type matchup Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Colson Montgomery hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Gavin Williams throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 96.6 21% .432 Sweeper 22% 86.6 45% .395 TOP Curveball22% 82.1 31% .338 TOP Cutter12% 91.7 18% .349 Sinker 9% 95.9 9% .392 Changeup 0% 88.2 0% —
Colson Montgomery vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 686 28% .342 88.1 Sweeper 124 40% .184 82.7 TOP Curveball125 36% .353 88.0 TOP Cutter147 24% .711 92.7 Sinker 272 26% .431 92.0 Changeup 234 38% .442 89.1
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases40% Home Runs30% Singles10% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks40% RBIs30% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.7
Our model 66% OVER +10.3% edge S
1 @PHI 06-07 0 vLAD 06-12 0 vLAD 06-13 2 vLAD 06-14 0 @NYY 06-16 2 @NYY 06-17 2 @NYY 06-18 0 @DET 06-19 0 @DET 06-20 0 @DET 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 57% 51/90 2025 65% 46/71
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.9 Plate Appearances avg 3.9
5 5 3 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 2.1
2 0 0 6 0 8 5 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.4
0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.2
2 1 0 2 1 0 0 3 2 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 7% — +550 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 66% +10.3% -128 -0.9 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 26% +7.5% +400 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -1.3% +1750 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 27% +5.5% +370 +1.7 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 18% — +163 -0.3 — 1.5 — S 16% — +475 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 41% — +200 -0.6 — 1.5 — PASS 8% — +1300 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 27% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 46% — +160 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -128 +400 +1750 +370
Price legs
Splits Career n=324 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
61-285 .214 .470 .256 13 0 20 39 35.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
19-85 .224 .529 .306 5 0 7 10 32.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
42-200 .210 .445 .235 8 0 13 29 37.0% Last 15 days
recent form
7-30 .233 .700 .467 2 0 4 5 36.7% vs CLE
tonight's opponent (full roster)
1-21 .048 .190 .143 0 0 1 6 42.9% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
222-1286 .173 .518 .345 111 0 111 194 29.1%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.325
wOBA 0.344
delta +0.019 hot
n=324 PA
Spray chart 354 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Gavin Williams's mix Balls in play 354
HR rate 11.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 49%
Avg exit velo 89.6 mph
Ground ball 35%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 32%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-20 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-19 4 0 0 0 0 1 3 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 3 K 2026-06-18 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-17 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 2-for-4 · 2 HR · 4 RBI · 2 R 2026-06-16 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-12 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-07 5 1 1 0 0 2 2 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 BB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Colson Montgomery across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
