← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +15.9% edge model 70% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Curveball (21% usage, .731 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 70% +15.9% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 6% -0.3% 0% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Alejandro Osuna, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-2 0% -100.0% A 0-2 0% -100.0% B 0-1 0% -100.0%
Combined 0-5 · n=5 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Alejandro Osuna (LHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHP favors batter favors pitcher Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 55.1 IP · 237 BF
Alejandro Osuna hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 32-122 .262 .295 .033 0 13.5% 16.4% vs RHP 28-111 .252 .288 .036 0 14.0% 15.3%
Pitch-type matchup Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Alejandro Osuna hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Tyler Phillips throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 30% 95.6 9% .293 Sweeper 23% 84.5 43% .311 TOP Curveball21% 84.0 41% .386 TOP Splitter17% 87.4 34% .247 Four-Seam 8% 95.2 8% .420 Cutter 0% 90.4 0% —
Alejandro Osuna vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 133 10% .268 92.4 Sweeper 57 23% .271 81.3 TOP Curveball64 19% .731 89.9 TOP Splitter27 23% .380 87.4 Four-Seam 470 16% .418 94.6 Cutter 75 12% .343 88.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks10% RBIs30% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7
Our model 70% OVER +15.9% edge S
1 vKCR 05-31 1 @STL 06-01 1 @STL 06-02 0 @STL 06-03 1 @BOS 06-14 0 vMIN 06-15 1 vMIN 06-16 0 vMIN 06-18 2 vSDP 06-19 0 vSDP 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 53% 31/59 2025 52% 32/61
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.3 Plate Appearances avg 3.3
4 4 4 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 Total Bases avg 0.8
1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +600 +1.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 70% +15.9% -120 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER S 29% +10.9% +400 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 6% +2.3% +2500 +0.6 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 6% -0.3% +1400 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 6% — +300 +3.9 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +900 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 58% — +120 +2.0 — 1.5 — A 17% — +700 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 35% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 40% — +240 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -120 +400 +2500 +1400
Price legs
Splits Career n=141 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
32-122 .262 .295 .033 4 0 0 19 16.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
4-11 .364 .364 .000 0 0 0 1 27.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
28-111 .252 .288 .036 4 0 0 18 15.3% Last 15 days
recent form
4-16 .250 .313 .063 1 0 0 0 25.0% vs MIA
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-7 .286 .429 .143 1 0 0 0 14.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.310
wOBA 0.294
delta −0.016 due
n=141 PA
Spray chart 227 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Tyler Phillips's mix Balls in play 227
HR rate 0.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 34%
Avg exit velo 87.2 mph
Ground ball 48%
Line drive 29%
Fly ball 17%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-19 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-18 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-15 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 R 2026-06-03 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 SB · 1 BB 2026-06-02 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-01 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 SB 2026-05-31 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Alejandro Osuna across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
