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Esmerlyn Valdez
RF · RHB · RHP · PIT
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+13.4% edgemodel 69% · grade S
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Esmerlyn Valdez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-7 | 42% | +50.2% |
| A | 1-6 | 14% | -76.1% |
| B | 3-5 | 38% | +93.9% |
Combined 9-18 · n=27 · ROI +30.4% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 17%
Matchup
Esmerlyn Valdez (RHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Janson Junk's arsenal × how Esmerlyn Valdez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.2
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.2
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.7
Walksavg 1.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-12 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=197 PA · 2026-05-22 → 2026-08-09
xStats luck
xwOBA0.348
wOBA0.396
delta+0.048 hot
n=197 PA
Spray chart
92 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-windBalls in play92
HR rate15.2%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo91.8 mph
Ground ball30%
Line drive17%
Fly ball46%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Esmerlyn Valdez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.