Kyle Manzardo

1B · LHB · RHP · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Merrill Kelly (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

20.2%

Model Hits%

64.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+4.9% edgemodel 64% · grade B

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (24% usage, .419 xwOBA) · wind 10 mph blowing out.

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	64%	+4.9%	50%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	20%	+3.3%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Manzardo, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	14-10	58%	+12.0%
A	7-5	58%	+54.6%
B	5-5	50%	+90.8%

Combined 26-20 · n=46 · ROI +40.3% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 45%

Matchup

Kyle Manzardo (LHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 122.3 IP · 526 BF

BAA

.280

wOBA

.394

SLG

.499

ISO

.219

WHIP

1.50

HR/9

1.84

BB%

9.7%

14.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

5.5%

HH%

45.5%

FB%

31.3%

HR/FB%

23.2%

Kyle Manzardo hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	69-329	.210	.380	.170	15	11.6%	36.5%
vs RHP	54-260	.208	.396	.188	13	10.7%	36.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Kyle Manzardo hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Merrill Kelly throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	27%	88.3	31%	.390
TOPFour-Seam	24%	91.9	18%	.432
Cutter	19%	90.7	15%	.399
Sinker	12%	92.3	7%	.415
Curveball	10%	81.7	18%	.378
Slider	9%	86.0	33%	.328
Pitchout	0%	90.3	—	—

Kyle Manzardo vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	407	29%	.325	84.7
TOPFour-Seam	968	24%	.419	91.8
Cutter	210	18%	.293	90.2
Sinker	356	17%	.370	91.0
Curveball	241	19%	.364	86.4
Slider	289	41%	.579	95.4
Pitchout	1	—	—	—

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model64% OVER+4.9% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4

Plate Appearancesavg 3.4

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.9

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+450	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	64%	+4.9%	-147	+2.6	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	20%	-2.9%	+340	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	3%	-2.5%	+1600	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	20%	+3.3%	+492	+1.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	13%	—	+179	+1.5	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+150	+1.5	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	35%	—	+158	+0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=372 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	69-329	.210	.380	.170	9	1	15	43	36.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	15-69	.217	.319	.101	1	0	2	12	34.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	54-260	.208	.396	.188	8	1	13	31	36.9%
Last 15 days recent form	6-35	.171	.486	.314	2	0	3	4	42.9%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	1913-9993	.191	.327	.135	312	0	346	847	37.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.299

wOBA0.303

delta+0.004 hot

n=371 PA

Spray chart

566 balls in play since 2025· wind 10 mph blowing out

Balls in play566

HR rate7.6%

Hard-hit (95+)45%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive23%

Fly ball35%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	3	2	1	0	0	1	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K
2026-07-31	2	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	1	0	1	2	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-28	2	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-07-26	2	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-2 · 2 K
2026-07-25	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-07-23	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-22	5	3	1	1	0	2	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 2 K
2026-07-21	2	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Manzardo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.