Chandler Simpson

LF · LHB · RHP · TBR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

BOS

Starter

Patrick Sandoval

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

2.5%

Model Hits%

68.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+5.7% edgemodel 74% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	74%	+5.7%	50%	LEAN
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	98%	-2.1%	100%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Chandler Simpson, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-4	71%	+60.2%
A	7-7	50%	-28.0%
B	6-5	55%	+11.3%

Combined 23-16 · n=39 · ROI +14.7% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 39%

Matchup

Chandler Simpson (LHB) vs Patrick Sandoval favors batterfavors pitcher

Patrick Sandoval · season · 62.1 IP · 267 BF

BAA

.312

wOBA

.349

SLG

.447

ISO

.135

WHIP

1.68

HR/9

0.87

BB%

11.2%

23.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

36.0%

FB%

35.4%

HR/FB%

9.7%

Chandler Simpson hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	175-585	.299	.352	.053	1	4.3%	8.0%
vs ?HP	121-383	.316	.368	.052	1	5.7%	7.3%

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model32% UNDER-1.7% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.0

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+525	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	32%	-1.7%	+201	-0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	A	74%	+5.7%	-213	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	98%	-2.1%	-30000	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	4%	—	+222	+1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	A	1%	—	+700	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	58%	—	-195	-1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	17%	—	+300	+1.2	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	30%	—	+170	-0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=611 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	175-585	.299	.352	.053	16	6	1	26	8.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	54-202	.267	.322	.054	5	3	0	3	9.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	121-383	.316	.368	.052	11	3	1	23	7.3%
Last 15 days recent form	14-50	.280	.320	.040	2	0	0	2	4.0%
vs BOS tonight's opponent (full roster)	12-42	.286	.381	.095	4	0	0	0	9.5%
@ Tropicana Field tonight's stadium	8996-28584	.315	.372	.057	1364	134	0	579	5.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.251

wOBA0.296

delta+0.045 hot

n=610 PA

Spray chart

914 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play914

HR rate0.1%

Hard-hit (95+)14%

Avg exit velo81.0 mph

Ground ball61%

Line drive24%

Fly ball12%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	2	0	0	2-for-4
2026-09-18	5	0	0	0	0-for-5 · 1 SB
2026-09-17	5	2	0	0	2-for-5 · 2 RBI · 2 R · 2 SB
2026-09-16	4	2	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 SB
2026-09-15	3	3	1	0	3-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-13	5	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-11	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-10	4	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-09	4	2	0	1	2-for-3 · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Chandler Simpson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.