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Hits OVER 0.5 +6.2% edge model 75% · grade A
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 75% +6.2% 50% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 5% -0.7% 0% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Chandler Simpson, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-3 25% -64.6% A — — — B 1-2 33% -54.5%
Combined 2-5 · n=7 · ROI -60.3% · avg CLV +2.0 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Chandler Simpson (LHB) vs Michael Wacha RHP favors batter favors pitcher Michael Wacha RHP · season · 97.9 IP · 421 BF
Chandler Simpson hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 75-287 .261 .314 .052 1 4.7% 10.8% vs RHP 57-191 .298 .356 .058 1 5.4% 10.5%
Pitch-type matchup Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Chandler Simpson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Michael Wacha throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 28% 93.0 16% .389 Changeup 24% 80.0 28% .297 Cutter 15% 88.4 15% .372 Sinker 14% 93.1 11% .396 Slider 11% 84.8 28% .372 Curveball 8% 75.4 31% .344
Chandler Simpson vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 843 4% .304 84.3 Changeup 213 18% .294 76.4 Cutter 148 8% .327 82.8 Sinker 418 4% .260 83.0 Slider 219 17% .325 84.8 Curveball 145 14% .327 80.2
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles50% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 75% OVER +6.2% edge A
0 @MIA 06-06 0 vBOS 06-09 0 @LAA 06-12 1 @LAA 06-13 1 @LAA 06-14 0 @LAD 06-16 0 @LAD 06-17 1 vWSN 06-19 2 vWSN 06-20 1 vWSN 06-21
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 67% 56/84 2025 73% 80/109
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
1 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 0.6
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.4
0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 10% — +575 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 75% +6.2% -222 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 31% +0.9% +230 -0.9 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -3.0% +900 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 5% -0.7% +1600 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 5% — +242 -0.7 — 1.5 — PASS 2% — +900 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 63% — -190 -0.6 — 1.5 — PASS 20% — +380 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 42% — +185 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -222 +230 +900 +1600
Price legs
Splits Career n=301 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
75-287 .261 .314 .052 4 4 1 14 10.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
18-96 .188 .229 .042 2 1 0 3 11.5% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
57-191 .298 .356 .058 2 3 1 11 10.5% Last 15 days
recent form
5-31 .161 .161 .000 0 0 0 1 9.7% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
505-2968 .170 .170 .000 0 0 0 0 20.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.261
wOBA 0.285
delta +0.024 hot
n=300 PA
Spray chart 634 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Michael Wacha's mix Balls in play 634
HR rate 0.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 15%
Avg exit velo 82.1 mph
Ground ball 61%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 11%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-20 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 SB 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-06-16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-14 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-09 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-06 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Chandler Simpson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
