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Rafael Flores Jr.
C · RHB · PIT
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+6.6% edgemodel 58% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (57% usage, .399 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Rafael Flores Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-5 | 50% | +80.9% |
| A | 3-1 | 75% | +115.9% |
| B | 0-2 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 8-8 · n=16 · ROI +67.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Rafael Flores Jr. (RHB) vs Jacob Misiorowski RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Jacob Misiorowski's arsenal × how Rafael Flores Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-15 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=134 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-13
xStats luck
xwOBA0.329
wOBA0.326
delta−0.003 due
n=134 PA
Spray chart
99 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing inBalls in play99
HR rate9.1%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive16%
Fly ball36%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Rafael Flores Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.