← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +8.0% edge model 65% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (35% usage, .345 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +8.0% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 8% -0.2% 10% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Chase Meidroth, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-0 100% +99.5% A 5-4 56% +173.6% B 2-3 40% -41.7%
Combined 11-7 · n=18 · ROI +97.3% · avg CLV -3.9 pts · beat close 18%
Matchup Chase Meidroth (RHB) vs Gavin Williams RHP favors batter favors pitcher Gavin Williams RHP · season · 95.6 IP · 411 BF
Chase Meidroth hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 83-302 .275 .404 .129 7 9.3% 25.2% vs RHP 54-215 .251 .363 .112 5 9.7% 26.5%
Pitch-type matchup Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Chase Meidroth hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Gavin Williams throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 96.6 21% .432 Sweeper 22% 86.6 45% .395 Curveball 22% 82.1 31% .338 Cutter 12% 91.7 18% .349 Sinker 9% 95.9 9% .392 Changeup 0% 88.2 0% —
Chase Meidroth vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 1008 8% .345 91.0 Sweeper 204 18% .236 78.7 Curveball 130 8% .269 80.9 Cutter 224 10% .314 84.0 Sinker 731 7% .307 87.5 Changeup 256 24% .282 86.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 65% OVER +8.0% edge S
1 vATL 06-10 3 vLAD 06-12 0 vLAD 06-13 1 vLAD 06-14 0 @NYY 06-16 2 @NYY 06-17 1 @NYY 06-18 0 @DET 06-19 1 @DET 06-20 0 @DET 06-21
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 80% 16/20 2026 72% 67/93 2025 67% 84/126
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.8 Plate Appearances avg 3.8
4 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 2 4 Total Bases avg 1.3
1 3 0 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.5
0 0 2 1 2 2 3 2 0 3
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 7% — +600 -0.5 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 65% +8.0% -132 -2.6 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 24% +2.6% +360 -1.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -0.6% +2000 -1.1 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 8% -0.2% +1100 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 5% — +300 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +1000 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 52% — +112 -3.1 — 1.5 — PASS 14% — +550 -1.3 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 36% — +220 -2.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -132 +360 +2000 +1100
Price legs
Splits Career n=333 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
83-302 .275 .404 .129 18 0 7 31 25.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
29-87 .333 .506 .172 9 0 2 8 21.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
54-215 .251 .363 .112 9 0 5 23 26.5% Last 15 days
recent form
11-41 .268 .366 .098 1 0 1 3 31.7% vs CLE
tonight's opponent (full roster)
4-20 .200 .400 .200 1 0 1 1 20.0% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
720-1929 .373 .546 .173 0 0 111 377 16.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.273
wOBA 0.306
delta +0.033 hot
n=332 PA
Spray chart 616 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Gavin Williams's mix Balls in play 616
HR rate 1.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 37%
Avg exit velo 87.5 mph
Ground ball 53%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 19%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-20 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-2 2026-06-19 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-18 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-17 5 2 1 0 0 0 2 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-06-12 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 3-for-3 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Chase Meidroth across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
