← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +5.7% edge model 60% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (20% usage, .662 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 60% +5.7% 90% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 84% +2.8% 80% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Munetaka Murakami, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S — — — A 4-0 100% +72.9% B 1-2 33% -43.0%
Combined 5-2 · n=7 · ROI +23.2% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Munetaka Murakami (LHB) vs Nick Martinez RHP favors batter favors pitcher Nick Martinez RHP · season · 126.7 IP · 545 BF
Munetaka Murakami hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 64-272 .235 .533 .298 24 18.1% 38.6% vs RHP 48-189 .254 .603 .349 20 18.2% 36.5%
Pitch-type matchup Nick Martinez's arsenal × how Munetaka Murakami hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Nick Martinez throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Changeup22% 78.6 28% .275 TOP Cutter21% 89.1 16% .368 TOP Sinker20% 92.5 9% .320 TOP Four-Seam18% 92.6 10% .429 Curveball 10% 79.8 15% .368 Slider 9% 85.0 30% .368 Pitchout 0% 92.4 — —
Munetaka Murakami vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Changeup136 44% .568 91.4 TOP Cutter75 30% .557 95.1 TOP Sinker153 31% .662 91.2 TOP Four-Seam306 35% .538 95.8 Curveball 69 25% .689 101.3 Slider 175 55% .401 95.6 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases50% Home Runs20% Singles50% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks70% RBIs20% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs100% Stolen Bases0%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 60% OVER +5.7% edge A
1 @TEX 07-20 1 @TEX 07-21 0 @TEX 07-22 1 vHOU 07-24 1 vHOU 07-25 3 vHOU 07-26 1 vNYY 07-27 1 vNYY 07-28 1 vNYY 07-29 1 vNYY 07-30
L5 100% 5/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 64% 53/83 2025 — 0/0
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.6 Plate Appearances avg 4.6
5 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 Total Bases avg 2.3
2 1 0 2 1 9 1 2 4 1 Home Runs avg 0.3
0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 1.3
1 0 3 1 1 0 1 2 2 2
Tonight's lines 2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 31% — +164 -0.6 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-119 Hits OVER 1.5+400 Hits OVER 2.5+2250 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-417
Price legs
Splits Career n=332 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-07-29
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
64-272 .235 .533 .298 9 0 24 60 38.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
16-83 .193 .373 .181 3 0 4 18 43.4% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
48-189 .254 .603 .349 6 0 20 42 36.5% Last 15 days
recent form
12-43 .279 .581 .302 4 0 3 11 34.9%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.362
wOBA 0.389
delta +0.027 hot
n=331 PA
Spray chart 172 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Nick Martinez's mix Balls in play 172
HR rate 14.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 58%
Avg exit velo 93.2 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 16%
Fly ball 41%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-30 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-07-29 5 1 0 0 1 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-07-28 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K 2026-07-27 5 1 0 0 0 2 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 2 BB · 1 K 2026-07-26 5 3 0 0 2 0 0 3-for-5 · 2 HR · 6 RBI · 3 R 2026-07-25 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-07-24 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-07-22 4 0 0 0 0 1 3 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 3 K 2026-07-21 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-07-20 5 1 1 0 0 2 1 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 2 R · 2 BB · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Munetaka Murakami across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.